FAQ
What is ODDS SigInt?
Why is it called ODDS SigInt?
How big does my account need to be?
How do I access ODDS SigInt?
How do I use ODDS SigInt to find profitable trade opportunities?
How many trades can I expect?
How frequently do you look for trades?
Can you describe this methodology you use to find your trades?
Q. What is ODDS SigInt?
A. ODDS SigInt is a strategy selection tool for finding
high-probability credit spreads. The big difference between ODDS SigInt and the other
trade analysis tools we offer is that, not only does it take into consideration volatility
and probability, this analysis method also takes into consideration both the technical
performance of the stock, and the earnings performance of the company. ODDS SigInt
provides traders with a daily list of the best high-return credit spread positions, along
with colored signals that collectively indicate a go or no-go signal.
Q. Why is it called ODDS SigInt?
A. You probably know why it’s called ODDS,
but you might not know why it’s called ODDS SigInt. ODDS SigInt is a term used
extensively in the field of intelligence gathering that stands for SIGnals INTelligence.
The methodology for this tool was developed by two rocket science nerds (like Don and
Bryan, they wear the nerd name proudly) who work at the premier government technology think-tank where our
nation's most important aeronautical military secrets are developed. And of course when
it comes to options, this tool provides traders with daily intelligence on those signals
that consistently point to profitable credit spreads.
Q. How big does my account need to be?
A. ODDS SigInt can be used with any account that has the
minimal balance that brokerages require to trade option spreads.
Q. How do I access ODDS SigInt?
A. We have a secure, private web site that is updated every
evening. All you need to do is visit that website.
Q. How do I use ODDS SigInt to find profitable trade opportunities?
A. Each evening, ODDS SigInt generates 20 of the best
bullish credit spreads and 20 of the best bearish credit spreads for
the next day. Each of these positions is evaluated on four criteria:
probability, fundamentals, technicals and trend. We rate each criterion
for each stock and indicate the rating by color code. Each signal
is colored green (good), yellow (moderate) or red (bad). Positions
where all four signals are green, meaning all four criteria are rated
as good, are considered “most favored”.
Q. How many trades can I expect?
A. From the 40 daily positions described above (20 bullish
spreads and 20 bearish spreads), an average of one to two trades
is discovered where all four signals are green. It is important
to note that there are days when market conditions do not yield
a single “most favored” trade. However, this is typically
followed by days where more than one or two “most favored”
trades are identified.
Q. How frequently do you look for trades?
A. Although we may not find a “most favored” trade every day, we do
look for one (or more) each and every evening.
Q. Can you describe this methodology you use to find your trades?
A. Am I glad you asked!! In the spirit of providing you with MORE information than you
or any subscriber needs to actually implement the trades, here is a description of the ODDS SigInt
tool. It’s boring and unnecessary, unless you’re into math and geek stuff like we are here.
So read the following only if you want to.
Whenever you see an “all green indicator” trade listed in ODDS SigInt, rest assured
that it has gone through a very rigorous analytical process.
Description of the model:
In recent years, the Black-Scholes option pricing model, which utilizes volatility,
current asset price and time to expiration, has provided option traders with a
proven, predictive method for determining the likelihood of winning for a given trade.
With this model as a foundation, an enhancement has been devised to offer option
traders an “added assurance” that a given trade will have a favorable outcome. This
enhancement was developed by two of Don's ODDS students who, on a
daily basis, apply rigorous scientific methods to the economic analysis
of advanced top-secret technology for the aerospace and defense
industries.
The enhancement consists of a proprietary methodology that considers not only
historic volatility and the accompanying Black-Scholes probability forecast,
but goes further to include historic company earnings growth, stock price
performance and recent price trend analyses. In short, this enhancement screens
some of the best daily high-probability trade opportunities against these four
leading indicators which signal asset price strength for bull put spreads, and
asset price weakness for those of the bear call.
With each trade opportunity, the four leading indicators are presented in the
colors green, yellow or red. The colors represent our proprietary rating to
each indicator. Green suggests a good rating, whereas red denotes a bad
rating. Yellow represents a marginal rating.
This daily trade listing is presented where each opportunity is ranked, in
descending order, according to its annualized return on investment. Starting
at the top (most favorable ROI), the user can scan down the listing to
identify those trades whose leading indicators are best (green).
Within a matter of seconds, the user can target the most favorable trades
of the day.
Aside from this remarkable daily snapshot of trade opportunities, this
enhancement offers the user an even greater benefit. Back-testing of
this enhancement over the last 12 months has demonstrated that those
trades whose four leading indicators are green yield a win rate that is
higher than that predicted by the Black-Scholes model (the theoretical
win rate). What this suggests is that, during the past 12 months, the
methodology has boosted the win rate of the high probability trades it
has identified over the theoretical win rate, thus offering the user
the potential of reaping higher premium rewards with lower degrees of
risk. To see the historical test record, CLICK HERE.
